Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-05 210.438710 250.257144 297.757584 359.245798 437.685496 535.715751 6.696113e+02
2025-10-12 168.279369 217.961422 284.255198 381.575329 525.058986 736.139574 1.085139e+03
2025-10-19 142.469485 195.874303 273.073433 397.571969 603.228032 949.770742 1.629671e+03
2025-10-26 123.801347 178.118103 261.657300 406.923428 670.762836 1171.520024 2.324598e+03
2025-11-02 108.915121 162.465308 249.047805 409.310294 725.050798 1391.658613 3.179371e+03
2025-11-09 95.618095 146.733521 232.725830 400.178125 753.280677 1570.939376 4.093331e+03
2025-11-16 84.996105 133.618018 218.251423 390.537603 776.658559 1750.784644 5.197303e+03
2025-11-23 76.217245 122.325753 204.988474 379.969494 794.236103 1925.937604 6.504699e+03
2025-11-30 73.774816 121.739050 211.229910 411.139479 922.527429 2492.304400 1.032732e+04
2025-12-07 68.780291 115.798630 206.116852 416.109256 985.969749 2904.762812 1.436499e+04
2025-12-14 65.029226 111.682966 203.945485 427.344690 1071.912078 3469.412034 2.109950e+04
2025-12-21 60.587167 105.697954 196.992053 425.389314 1118.441840 3924.224449 2.889778e+04
2025-12-28 59.402125 106.143601 204.162331 462.261320 1311.449317 5273.627026 5.552650e+04
2026-01-04 57.633604 105.197489 208.170204 492.290196 1501.029175 6919.217969 1.098509e+05
2026-01-11 55.435790 103.076445 209.140007 514.261288 1675.945367 8825.183567 2.231239e+05
2026-01-18 52.901504 99.932020 207.186900 527.194102 1824.220783 10896.733569 4.630121e+05
2026-01-25 50.106332 95.907998 202.490143 530.501145 1934.248549 12965.770933 9.695106e+05
2026-02-01 46.819206 90.463836 193.508295 517.840295 1962.675913 14377.605732 1.800181e+06
2026-02-08 43.822808 85.401568 184.874066 504.503149 1982.726357 15826.408919 3.574356e+06
2026-02-15 41.059050 80.624982 176.401851 489.916178 1990.078437 17220.130445 7.591291e+06
2026-02-22 40.868882 81.759680 183.659126 533.039092 2356.876758 25382.000669 2.193844e+08
2026-03-01 39.263868 79.410417 181.183055 539.942147 2515.636854 31293.846355 1.912181e+11
2026-03-08 38.071958 77.936644 180.941573 555.575441 2749.773757 40804.288552 NaN